Introduction to data assimilation 

Time evolution of probabilities

The discret version of pdf allows one to understand the dynamics in time.

If

is the probability of at time then

is the probability density of at time .

Let see the following example..

Example

or this one..

(a) At the linear approximation, the initial circle is transformed into ellipses following a where its covariance matrix is

is is a Gaussian random vector of covariance matrix .

(b) Then, after a larger time of integration, the ensemble transformed by the flow is no more Gaussian, and this marks the first stage of nonlinear behaviour.

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