Introduction to data assimilation 

Basics in probability

Within the probabilistic framework, the exact state of the system is represented by a probability density. For instance, you can imagine that this distribution is given by

The probability that the random value X is in is given

Sample of this random variable can be constructed, some are represented here

When the number of sample is large (more than 1000 samples)

Samples are concentrated near the value

In terms of Dirac's distribution ? the empirical density is

We can compute the histogram, and obtain..

Sampling noise leads to different histograms at each evaluation with the sample amount of samples (here, Ne = 10000).

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