Introduction to data assimilation 

Mean, Variance, and empirical estimators

Among quantities of interest we can introduce to feature the distribution, we can mention

  • the mean

  • the variance (or covariance matrix).

These quantities can be estimated from an ensemble of identical independent sample of the same random variable.

This also allows the estimation of the density distribution, called the empirical density.

Mean of random variable

By definition, the mean or expectation of a random variable X is defined as the integral

or from an ensemble of samples, by the limit of the empirical mean

when the number of sample increases toward infinity

Variance of random variable

The variance quatify the dispersion of the random variable around the mean. This is defined as

or from an ensemble of samples, by the limit of the empirical variance

The standard deviation has a more physical sens then the variance.

Covariance matrix

For random vectors, the equivalent of the variance is no more than the covariance matrix defined by

or from an ensemble of samples, by the limit of the empirical variance

Empirical distribution

The probability density function can be seen as the limit of the empirical probability density estimated from the samples

where denotes the Dirac's distribution, when the number of samples increases to infinity

so that

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